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Brain drain not a crisis - yet
EMIGRATION SURVEY
A HIGH proportion of skilled South Africans have considered emigration but few are actually likely to pack their bags, a survey has found. The survey, conducted by Idasa, found a large number (68%) of skilled people had given consideration to emigration, correlating with a recent Sunday Times survey which found that 74% of skilled South Africans had considered leaving. But Idasa's survey, commissioned by the Southern African Migration Project (SAMP), went further and found that a far smaller 38% said they had given it a "great deal of thought", and the probability of them acting on this is even lower.
The results are based on a representative, random sample of 725 skilled South Africans interviewed by phone between June and August. They hold a matric and at least a diploma or degree, and are economically active, says Idasa project co-ordinator Wayne Richmond. The survey found 28% of respondents had a strong desire to leave, and 19% said they were very likely to emigrate. Yet those who expressed both a strong desire to leave and said it was very likely was only 16%. The numbers dropped further when placed in a specified time period. The survey said 3% were "very likely" to leave in the next six months, and 5% in the next two years. A higher 13% said it was "very likely" they would leave in the next five years. This longer period also suggests it may be possible to address people's concerns in the short to medium term. When the responses are assembled to create a reliable index that measures a skilled person's probability of emigration, only 2% have a "very high" probability of leaving SA in the next two to five years, but 26% have a "high" emigration probability, while 28% rank as moderate. The survey finds that potential emigration from SA does not just amount to "white flight". Skilled whites are not much more likely to leave than skilled blacks, and there is virtually no difference in the probability of emigration between white Afrikaner and white English-speaking skilled South Africans. Idasa says results show only a modest correlation between indicators of one's patriotism or national identity, and one's willingness to leave the country. "It is certainly not the case that those who are most likely to leave are 'unpatriotic'. On the contrary, 68% of those with 'high emigration potential' still agree that they have a strong desire to help build South Africa," says Mattes. "The picture is not of an unpatriotic, ungrateful group unprepared to serve their county." Rather, the picture is more of a group of people with the means to do so leaving under duress. "While these preliminary findings challenge much of the current hype and vitriolic debate on skilled emigration, they should nonetheless be seen as a warning of possible trends."
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"The preliminary findings show that while skilled emigration presents a real challenge, it is highly doubtful that the country is in danger of losing a majority of its skilled sector," says Bob Mattes, manager of Idasa's Public Opinion Service.