By MARCIA KLEIN

FOR the first time in nearly a year, inflation dipped in March - to 9.6% from 9.8% for the previous month.

The Central Statistical Service's official CPI figure, released on Wednesday, has elicited a mixed response.

Some optimists, including Huysamer Stals chief economist Johan Rossouw, believes this dip - the first in 11 months - is the start of a declining trend in the inflation cycle. In fact, Rossouw stuck his neck out to say that he was "confident that inflation will reach levels of around 6% by year-end".

The consensus among economists to date has been that CPI will reach a level of about 7.5% by year-end, resulting in an average of about 9% for 1997 as a whole. But other less optimistic views are that this dip is probably a temporary phenomenon, and that the CPI will pick up again in April and reach a peak of 10% - a level it has been nudging - before mid-year.

The CSS says the monthly rise of 0.6% in March reflects increases in the price indices of food (contributing 0.1 of a percentage point), housing (also 0.1), education - contributing 0.2 of a percentage point due to the annual price surveys for university and school fees - and other items (0.2).

The food increase was caused largely by increases in grains (up 0.7%); fish and seafood (0.4%); milk cheese and eggs (1%); fats and oils (1.2%); fruit and nuts (1.6%); vegetables (1.8%); sugar (0.2%) and coffee, tea and cocoa (0.6%). These were offset to some extent by a decrease in the price index for meat.

The monthly increase of 0.6% for items excluding food resulted from increases in the price indices for non-alcoholic beverages (up 1.4%); alcoholic beverages (2.3%); cigarettes, cigars and tobacco (3.4%); clothing and footwear (0.3%); housing (0.3%); fuel and power (0.1%); furniture and equipment (0.6%); medical care and health expenses (0.5%); transport (0.1%); recreation and entertainment (0.6%); education (9.6%) and personal care (0.4%).