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Stals upbeat about rand strengt...
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Stals upbeat about rand strength
ECONOMIC PROSPECTS
RESERVE Bank governor Chris Stals said on Friday the rand's current strength could continue for another few months after its average weighted value rose 2% in January. "The relative strength of the rand could continue for another few months. What we are looking for is a more stable exchange rate," he said from Davos, Switzerland, where he is attending the World Economic Forum. Stals told Reuters that the Bank would "lean against the wind" in the foreign exchange market if the rand rose too fast against the dollar. The bank had already bought dollars on the market in January, he said. He said the rand's recent strength was mainly the result of more positive expectations. "It looks like foreign investors are showing a new interest in portfolio investment in South Africa," he said. Reserve Bank sources on Friday, however, dispelled speculation the government would accelerate its plans to ease foreign exchange controls. "Apart from the usual discussion with the Department of Finance on exchange controls we have not been told that a specific announcement in imminent," said a senior Bank official. However, the noises emanating from the Bank recently have been the most positive in a while. The appointment of James Cross as deputy governor has been widely welcomed by financial markets and contributed to the rise of the rand to a two- month high this week. On Friday the currency closed at R4,565 against the US dollar, 1c down from the R4,555 close on Thursday. The rand, however, failed for the third time to breach the critical R4,55 level. Since the beginning of the year the currency has risen from R4,70 to the dollar and improved from R8 to R7,31 against the pound. On Friday Cross said renewed foreign inflows and a stronger rand were encouraging economic signs. But he cautioned that the authorities wanted to be sure inflows were sustainable before contemplating an easing of exchange control regulations. Economists are urging the government to use the recent positive investor sentiment to announce a further deregulation of controls. "Now would be a wonderful time to start implementing measures to relax exchange controls," Anastasia Gekis, economist at ABN-Amro bank, told Reuters. The rand has been strengthened by recent capital inflows to local financial markets and foreign exchange reserves are expected to rise by R1-billion to over R11-billion in January. Cross reiterated that the Reserve Bank would look for reasonable reserves to counter large-scale outflows of capital once exchange controls were lifted. Less good news for the SA economy was the slump in the price of gold to its lowest level since September 1993. The gold market was hit by widespread speculation about new central bank selling. The bearish market got a small but short-lived lift from news that Russia's state gold reserves were practically empty. Gold was fixed on Friday afternoon at $345 an ounce, almost $5 down from Thursday's close. Fresh rumours of central bank sales, just weeks after the Dutch central bank announced it had sold 300 tons from its reserves, injected a chill into the already nervous market. The market has been on edge, watching gold plunge nearly 7% since the start of 1997. Prices are also down some 17% since a blistering rally peaked at $417 almost exactly a year ago. ¥ See Page 5 Top of page
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